Bubble 2008
As a veteran of the first Internet bubble in the late 90’s, I found Chris Shipley’s (DEMO founder) article about the impending tech winter very interesting.
“Take a look at the leading indicators. For the past 36 months, startups have popped up like dandelions in spring. Literally thousands of entrepreneurs have taken advantage of favorable market trends – open source, public APIs, cheap hosting, and cheaper capital – to quickly bring Web 2.0 products online. A majority of these products are a clever mashup of open technologies. There may be new ideas behind these sites, but not necessarily a lot of new technology or protectable intellectual property. While some of these products have proved to be a popular success, most were taken to a market without a clear plan to turn traffic into meaningful and sustainable revenue.
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A lot of people will view the end of the Web 2.0 frenzy a lot like kids who see that the summer fading and realize that school is about to begin again. It’s important to realize, though, that Web 2.0 isn’t “over.” Instead, a set of ideals, methodologies, and even some technologies have matured and are moving mainstream. Companies that have prepared for the long road ahead — those that did their “summer reading,” if you will — will fare well and build on the foundations laid down over the past few years.”
I welcome the upcoming pop as much as I dread it. Bubbles are great because they offer a fertile environment for innovation and trying new things without the typical new business constraints. And this is even more true with web 2.0. It’s even easier to start a company. You’ve got developers building open source technology for anyone to use and customization is easy as long as you create a good brand. Execution is the name of the game and the challenge is being the first person to build the idea instead of just talk about building it. But because it’s so easy to build something, doesn’t necessarily mean you should - or that the world wants it. In bubbles there are many companies that just wouldn’t exist in other times and it’s these companies that ultimate make the bubble pop - and give the tech industry a bad name.
This is why I welcome the bubble pops. It requires entrepreneurs to do their homework and think about their business model and whether their audiences really want their product. Good technologies and ideas that occur in bubble don’t necessarily go away. They may go into hiding for years waiting for their time to go mainstream. (This is what I think happened with DHTML/AJAX in 1999.)
When a bubble is big, the pop is big, the recovery takes longer and it is a larger impact. I hope our current tech bubble pops sooner than later - because it means we’re closer to correcting. I’d like to see the tech community work together to create sustainable growth instead of sensational spikes.
* photo by Arc-Light





